Stock - Burza ( AMD, Intel, nVidia )

[Panoramix0903]

Vie mi niekto toto vysvetlit? Ako je to mozne?

We are going to take a look at four particular dates: July 21st, 2006, the Friday before AMD publicly announced its intention to buy ATI; July 24th, 2006, the day AMD announced its intention to buy ATI; October 24th, 2006, the last day of ATI stock trading; and July 20th, 2007, last Friday, one year after AMD had first announced that it would buy ATI.

The scenario for ATI stock was the following. On July 21st, 2006 it closed at $16.56, closing at $19.67 on July 24th, 2006 after AMD announced that they would buy ATI. That was an impressive 19% increase on the company stock price, however you have to keep in mind that at the closing of the deal (which happened Oct 25th, 2006) AMD would buy each ATI stock paying $16.40 cash plus 0.2229 shares of AMD stock for people still holding ATI stock. Since AMD closing price on July 24th was $17.39, each ATI stock was actually valuated at $20.28 ($16.40 + $3.876, which is $17.39 x 0.2229), so even with this price increase it was still quoted a little bit below its “real” value.

On the day the deal was closed, Oct 25th, 2006, ATI was valuated at $5 billion ($19.53 closing price on Oct 24th, 2006 times 258.26 million outstanding shares). AMD paid $4.2 billion in cash for it plus gave away 57 million AMD shares. Keep these numbers.

And how about AMD? On July 21st, 2006 it closed at $18.26. On July 24th, 2006 it closed at $16.90, an 8% loss on the day AMD announced it would buy ATI (what is quite intriguing is that on July 20th, 2006 AMD closed at $21.65, suggesting that people knew what was going to happen). On October 24th, 2006, last day of ATI stock trading AMD stock closed at $20.32. And last Friday AMD closed at $15.50.

So if you had bought AMD stock on the day it announced they would buy ATI, you would have 8.3% less money today. If you had bought AMD stock on the day it finished buying ATI (October 25th, 2006) you would have 25.60% less money today.

On the last business day before AMD announced it would buy ATI it was a company worth $9 billion, and one day before it was worth $10.65 billion, two times more than ATI. On the day it announced it was buying ATI, its market value dropped to $8.3 billion (values based on 492 million outstanding shares). And today, one year later, AMD is worth only $8.5 billion (value based on 550 million outstanding shares).

This is the math we can’t understand. AMD bought a 5 billion dollar company, paid 4.2 billion dollars in cash for it and instead of becoming a $15 billion company the market says that today the company is worth less than when it started the merger process. Once again, two business days before announcing it was going to acquire ATI, AMD was worth $10.65 billion, its value dropped to $9 billion on the day before the announcement and today it is worth $8.5 billion.

So what happened to nVidia, ATI’s archenemy, during this same time period?

On the day AMD announced it was going to buy ATI, nVidia stock closed at $19.56, a 10% increase over the price of the previous business day. On the day after the last trading day of ATI stock, October 25th, 2006, nVidia stock closed at $32.80 – a 67.7% increase! And July 20th, 2007 nVidia stock closed at $45.10, an unbelievable 130% increase in just one year. Who bought $5,000 in AMD shares one year ago would have today $4,585, while if you had bought nVidia you would have $11,500!

How about the size of the company? On July 21st 2006 the market evaluated nVidia as worth $6.2 billion, on the day AMD announced they were going to buy ATI nVidia market cap increased to $6.9 billion (values based on 352.5 million outstanding stocks). Today the market says nVidia is worth $16.4 billion (based on 362.9 million outstanding stocks).

What!?!? Wait a moment! That was exactly what should have happened to AMD! Oh-oh. Backfire! So what happened is that even though AMD buying ATI “made sense”, the market thinks that the company that benefited the most from this merger was nVidia!

That is even more impressive if we remember that ATI was a $5 billion company when it was sold to AMD.

And how about Intel? Well, Intel is a different story, because it is far bigger than AMD, as it designs and develops several other products besides PC processors.

Anyway, On July 21st 2006 Intel stock closed at $17.15, closing at $17.48 on the day AMD announced it was going to buy ATI. However, on July 19th, 2006 Intel stock closed at $18.49, dropping 7.25% in two days. On the last day of trade of ATI stock Intel closed at $21.62. And July 20th, 2007 Intel closed at $24.55.

If you bought Intel instead of AMD on the day AMD announced they would buy ATI, you would have accumulated a 40.45% profit in one year. That is amazing.

The market valuated Intel on July 21st 2006 as a $99 billion company. On the last day of ATI trading Intel was valuated as a $125 billion company. And today Intel has a market cap of $142 billion, being almost 17 times more valuable than AMD (Intel has 5.8 billion outstanding shares).

So far the big winner from the AMD-ATI deal is clearly nVidia. Today nVidia is worth two times and a half more than it was one year ago, while AMD is worth less than it was before buying ATI!

This is simply amazing, AMD bought a 5 billion dollar company and instead of becoming a 15 billion dollar company nVidia was the one that became such company!

Also during the last 1-year period Intel market value increased 43%.

Of course the market isn’t static and everything can change. It is probably too early to see any practical results from the ATI buyout by AMD, especially because when AMD bought ATI they claimed that the results from this buyout would be seen only in 2008.

[CrakeN]

Nieco o tom som pisal uz daaavno tu

http://www.pretaktovanie.sk/modules.php ... oj+akci%ED

Neviem sice, o com je toto (ak to precitam uplne cele, mozno sa blizsie vyjadrim).

[DiwaSwina]

hm keby este autor v skratke vysvetlil o co ide